HOUSTON  --  From 2004 through 2005, the world produced almost 650 million barrels more oil than demand consumed, according to the accepted International Energy Agency model. But where are these barrels of oil?

"Little of this glut has shown up in observed petroleum stocks," writes Mr. Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, in the January issue of World Energy Monthly Review. "In fact, as demand for oil continues to grow, daily usage rates indicate many key stock points are at historic lows."

Faulty measurement models, "despite a great deal of rhetoric about better transparency," are to blame for inaccurate estimates of global supply, he asserts, leading to the perceived supply gluts. "Supply forecasts are still speculative; they are either guessing or ignoring the steadily increasing declines from almost all significant production regions around the world."

Not only is the supply side lacking helpful data, Mr. Simmons writes, but "the world has no system to record the physical use of almost all oil products and also lacks accurate reports of crude-oil refinery runs."

Current inventory is likewise uncertain, according to Mr. Simmons. "Only the stocks of the OECD member countries are ever reported, and many of the reporting countries lack the detailed (if itself faulty) system employed in the United States."

"The whole reporting system for the global oil supply is badly in need of an overhaul," Mr. Simmons concludes, adding that we are facing the "dangerous ... prospect of suddenly running into shortages while supply-and-demand models report massive gluts."

Other features in this issue include Dr. Craig Pirrong commenting on the idiosyncrasies of energy trading and a close look at the producing regions of Eastern Europe and India. Brian Tully talks about automakers entering the power business, and Thomas Kornegay from the Port of Houston Authority examines the security issues faced during hurricane evacuations.

World Energy Monthly Review offers a no-holds-barred perspective, timely information and in-depth analysis on energy issues. To read these essays, please visit www.WorldEnergySource.com/WEMR.

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